MLB 2010 Outlook and Predictions

This season promises to be an entertaining one but I don’t see many surprises ahead.

To win the American League Pennant you still have to go through Boston and New York.  Both teams should be at the top of the AL East.  Tampa, a very good team in their own right, just don’t have enough to leap those two.  The AL Central should be the most competitive division in the AL.  Chicago and that killer rotation should have an edge over a Nathan-less Twins team and a rebuilt Tiger group.  The AL West could get interesting if Anaheim can’t stay healthy.  Seattle and Texas could knock on the door but everything has to go their way.

The National League isn’t much different than the AL.  But, instead of teams having to go through NY and Boston, they have to go through LA and Philly.  They are still far and away the better teams of the league.  Philadelphia should win the East yet again but Atlanta has made enough off-season moves to make some noise.  Atlanta and Florida should compete for a Wildcard spot.  The Mets will implode like they do every season.

The NL Central should be the Cardinals to lose.  They should run it wire to wire with very little challenge from Chicago or Cincinnati.  Look for Chicago to compete for a tightly contested Wildcard with about 4 or 5 other teams.

The NL West should be very competitive.  While LA is still considered the team to beat, San Francisco and Colorado have done enough in the off-season to remain competitive and stay on the Dodgers heels all season.  Colorado and San Fran should have an epic battle for 2nd place in the division and an opportunity at at the Wildcard.

AL EAST

1 – BOSTON RED SOX   99-63

2 – NY YANKEES   95-67

3 – TAMPA RAYS   88-74

4 – BALTIMORE ORIOLES   75-87

5 – TORONTO BLUE JAYS   65-97

AL CENTRAL

1 – CHICAGO WHITE SOX   86-76

2 – MINNESOTA TWINS   84-78

3 – DETROIT TIGERS   81-81

4 – KC ROYALS   79-83

5 – CLEVELAND INDIANS 75-87

AL WEST

1 -ANAHEIM ANGELS 88-74

2 – SEATTLE MARINERS   85-77

3 – TEXAS RANGERS   80-82

4 – OAKLAND A’s   77-85

NL EAST

1 – PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES   95-67

2 – ATLANTA BRAVES   87-75

3 – FLORIDA MARLINS   83-79

4 – NY METS   80-82

5 – WASHINGTON NATIONALS   68-94

NL CENTRAL

1 – STL CARDINALS   90-72

2 – CHICAGO CUBS   87-75

3 – CINCINNATI REDS   84-78

4 – MILWAUKEE BREWERS 80-82

5 – HOUSTON ASTROS   77-85

6 – PITTSBURGH PIRATES   66-96

NL WEST

1 – LOS ANGELES DODGERS   98-64

2 – COLORADO ROCKIES   90-72

3 – SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS   87-75

4 – ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS   80-82

5 – SAN DIEGO PADRES   70-92

AL Playoff Teams – Boston, New York, Chicago, Anaheim

NL Playoff Teams – Philadelphia, St. Louis, Colorado, Los Angeles

AL Champ – Boston

NL Champ – Los Angeles

World Series Champ – Boston

NFL Changes to Draft and OT are D U M B

The NFL thought it would be a good idea to change the way they do business…in overtime.

Now, on the surface I thought GREAT, they have decided to adopt the NCAA OT rules or some each team gets a possession kind of thing.  I was excited to learn more.

But, that isn’t what the NFL did.  The NFL decided to change it up in a different.  Now, if the team with first possession kicks a field goal the other team has an opportunity to tie or win.  However if the team with first possession scores a TD than the game is over.  Unless their is a solar eclipse or a pacific rim earthquake, which, in that case the referee just throws the ball into the air and whoever catches it and doesn’t fall down wins the game.  Sound ridiculous?  Of course it does.

They should have adopted the NCAA OT rules or just left the existing set of OT rules alone.  What is so wrong with first team scores wins?  Or you give each team one possession and if they can’t do it than it is a tie.  Either switch would have been interesting although I prefer college OT.  Switching to the 2-point conversion worked, why not try it?

Why is it that professional leagues like the NFL find the need to tinker with what works?  Why can’t they just leave it alone.  The NFL isn’t alone in this.  The NHL, MLB and NBA love to tinker too.  I just wish they would stop it.

But that wasn’t the only tinkering the NFL did recently.   They made changes to the NFL Draft.  They are going to have Round One on a Thursday night, Round Two on a Friday Night and the rest of the Draft on Saturday.  WHY?  What was wrong with the way they had it set up before?  Saturday Draft Day parties were always the best.  We took road trips (Soldier Field, Ford Field for example) to hang with other teams fans and watch the Draft.  The 4th Saturday in April was always great for having friends over, BBQing and enjoying the day.

Can’t do that anymore.  Now you try to get out of work early enough to catch Round 1 but you can’t hang out too long to enjoy it or talk about it because the next day is a work day.  Than, they have the “brains” to put the following round on a FRIDAY?  Um, let me tell you most of the Draft fans won’t be watching.  It is FRIDAY night.  They put some of the worst TV shows on Friday night because no one is home to watch them.  A few fans might tune in sporadically on Saturday but by now most are still trying to figure out what happened the last two days and catch up to what their favorite teams are doing.

Not to mention it effects people travel plans.  Hundreds of fans from all over the country used to make the trip to NYC for the event.  You could fly out on Friday night in time for the Saturday AM event.  Now those same fans are going to have to take 2 days off of work to celebrate the NFL Draft in person.  Not a very fan friendly idea if you ask me.

If on the surface it looks like such a bad move from a fan perspective why do it?  G R E E D!  The NFL gets advertising revenue for two primetime events.  Bigger cash cow for the league to do it this way but little attention being paid to what actually works best for the fans.  The upside though is when the NFL discovers the TV ratings are in the toilet on Thursday and Friday they won’t be able to sell the ad space at the same rate the next time around.  Maybe then they’ll go back to Saturday and Sunday

The NFL used to be about the “Fan Experience” but lately they seem to only care about the bottom line.  Maybe this is just a recession thing and things will return to normal when the economy turns.  But, with the CBA expired and the 2011 season in jeopardy they’ll have more than OT and Draft day to worry about.

Top NFL Free Agents and Where They Are Going

This season is a great year for NFL Free Agents for a number of reasons.  First off there are many teams with needs which always makes for an interesting off-season.  Secondly there are a bumper crop of unrestricted free agents.  Finally this is a no cap season so teams with money can pull a NY Yankees and buy a championship.

With some positions there isn’t much out there.  There are no real free agent QBs to speak of this season.  Kyle Orton is probably the best of the bunch and he is a RFA which means he will get another year behind the wheel of the Broncos offense.  Tavaris Jackson will also stay put in Minnesota because Favre is done.  Or is he?  LOL

There are a bumper crop of quality running backs during this free agent period.  Recently released Brian Westbrook and Ladainian Tomlinson lead the group.  I look for Westbrook to sign with a team that already has a main back to carry the load.  Minnesota or Arizona Cardinals could be a good bet.  Westbrook’s head injuries could be enough to scare off most teams.  Tomlinson could be re-united with Brees in New Orleans but he could also wind up in Chicago to play in the Mike Martz offense.  Tomlinson’s former teammate Darren Sproles will also be looking for work for a team that can use his multiple skill sets.  The Miami Dolphins and Chicago Bears could take a peak at Darren.  Chester Taylor will more than likely pull a Michael “the Burner” Turner and bolt his long time team for a starting gig.  Seattle, NY or Miami could be the best spot for him.  Willie Parker will probably not be retained by Pittsburgh.  He is coming off an injury plagued subpar season.  A team like Houston or Green Bay could take a shot on Willie Parker.  Another free agent back is Ronnie Brown.  Now Miami might do what they can to retain him and he may not want to leave.  However with teams giving away money this season he might go where the money is.  New Orleans or Minnesota could be a really nice fit for him.  Finally Leon Washington of the Jets should remain with the team.  He is an UFA but I think he is in a great situation in NY and he knows it.  Tommy Jones won’t be so lucky.  The recently released Jet RB will have to find a new team.  Denver or Houston could use his services as a 2nd string veteran back up to those teams young stud starters.

There are a decent crop of wide receivers and tight ends in the draft.  The first is obviously Terrell Owens.  The downside is that he is the 36 year old Terrell Owens.  Most teams will take a look but won’t budge on him.  Look for him to start the season unemployed.  A team might take a flyer on him if they lose a top receiver to injury.  Baltimore and Cincy should be the two teams most interested in his services.  Tampa Bay WR Antonio Bryant is a free agent but Tampa is interested in retaining his services.  They are a good fit for one another and I don’t look for him to leave town.  Kevin Walter might leave Houston.  He is nothing more than a complimentary receiver so the really big bucks won’t be there for him.  Tennessee, NY Jets or Kansas City could be in the mix for Walter.  WRs like Braylon Edwards, Brandon Marshall, Steve Breaston, Miles Austin and Vincent Jackson are all Restricted FAs and will probably remain with their teams one more season.  The only one that could be shown the door in a sign in trade type of a deal is Brandon Marshall who doesn’t fit in well in Denver.  Brandon would love to play in Chicago with Jay Cutler but the NY Jets might be the best situation for him.

There are quite a few guys who look to change teams and make bank on the offensive line.  Some of the top guys who will garner interest are Logan Mankins (NE), Chad Clifton (GB), Bobby Williams (CIN), Jahri Evans (NO), Kevin Mawae (TEN), Justin Hartwig (PIT), Daryn Colledge (GB) and Jared Gaither (BAL) just to name a few.  I look for a lot of 1 and 2 years deals to be tendered with the impending work stoppage in 2011.  However, a guy like Chad Clifton and Kevin Mawae could get very rich one year deals to play else where.

The defensive ends, like the offensive linemen, are in for big pay days.  The two top prospects should be Julius Peppers (CAR) and Aaron Kampman (GB).  I don’t look for either guy to be back with their 2009 team.  I look for Peppers to end up in Chicago or Philly.  Kampman will garner interest from teams that still run the 4 down linemen.  Chicago could be interested if Peppers goes to Philly.  Kampman could also end up in Indianapolis, New Orleans, Detroit or Washington.  One FA End who could be high on teams with a 3-4 scheme would be Elvis Dumervil from Denver.  I would think Denver would tag him and keep him in-house.  Stay tuned on that one.  Other FA Ends who should be changing addresses are Adewale Ogunleye, Leonard Little (STL), Marcus Spears (DAL), Jevon Kearse (TEN) and Kyle Vanden Bosch (ARI).

The defensive tackles available are also impressive this year.  The group is led by Vince Wilfork (NE) who I believe has already been tagged by New England.  At only 30 years of age Richard Seymour (OAK) should still gain some interest.  Injuries and lack of production may cost him a big pay day but someone like Dallas, San Diego or Detroit could go after him.  Aubrayo Franklin (SF) is a surprise of the group.  He had a very solid season last year and is very valuable to the improving Niners.  Look for them to tag him.  Two others who could change addresses are Casey Hampton (PIT) and Ryan Pickett (GB).  Of the two Casey may stay put as ownership has shown interest in bringing him back to one of the better run defenses in football.  Green Bay may not be pressed into bringing Pickett back with B.J. Raji waiting in the wings.  Ryan could end up in Oakland or Cleveland.

The linebacker group is a pretty decent group but most of these FAs may end up staying where they are at.  One that won’t will be Karlos Dansby (ARI).  He has under performed and Arizona looks to shake up their defense this off-season.  Several teams may take a gamble on Karlos because of his ability to play in many different schemes.  Dallas would seem like a good fit.  Kansas City or Indianapolis could work too.  One LB of interest is Shawne Merriman (SD).  The Chargers seem to be cleaning house and future plans don’t seem to include the former Pro-Bowler.  He is listed as a restricted FA but that won’t stop teams from taking a look.  A team like Arizona or San Francisco might offer him a short term deal to come in and lead their young defenses.  Linebackers Barrett Ruud (TB), Demeco Ryans (HOU) and D’Qwell Jackson (CLE) are FAs but should remain where they are at.  They are all at the top of their game and their current teams have indicated they will bring them back.  Others to keep an eye on are Gary Brackett (IND), Thomas Howard (OAK), Bertrand Berry (ARI) and Scott Fujita (NO).

In the defensive backfield the corner crop is a little thin but the safeties are a bumper crop.  Leigh Bodden (NE) is one of the better ones out there.  Look for New England to try to bring him back.  Bodden also wants to stay which is key.  Dunta Robinson (HOU) has a boat load of talent but has worn out his welcome in Houston.  He should bolt for another team.  Miami, Arizona and Detroit are all possible destinations.  Richard Marshall (CAR) is a young stud and is a restricted FA.  Look for Carolina to try to bring him back.  Other CBs that will be available include Carlos Rogers (WAS), Tramon Williams (GB), Will Blackmon (GB) and Kevin Dockery (NYG).

The safties as I mentioned are a different story.  If you want a talented FA safety this is the year.  Unfortunately most of them are going to cost you a draft pick.  Antrel Rolle (ARI), CB switched to S, is probably the #1 target.  It appears he is Chicago’s #1 target.  We will see if Arizona retains him or Chicago snags him.  Another top candidate could be Darren Sharper (NO).  He is getting up there in age and all indications the Saints would love to have him back for 2010.  In a capless off-season we will have to see about that.  Good teams like New England, Philly, Indianapolis or Dallas could go after Darren.  Antoine Bethea (IND), O.J. Otogwe (STL), Bernard Pollard (HOU) and Roman Harper (NO) will all get looks from other teams but will more than likely stay put.  Some other intriguing guys that will probably change addresses are Will Allen (TB), Dewan Landry (BAL), Sean Jones (PHI) and Atari Bigby (GB).

It will be interesting to see what happens with the CBA moving forward.  One thing is for sure, with a cap free season dozens if not a hundred players could be on a different team in 2010.  This FA season is almost as important, if not more important, than the NFL Draft.  Teams like Chicago and Seattle who aren’t going to be able to change much about their team in the draft will be able to address all of their needs this season.  A team like Dallas that has said they want as many as a dozen new guys in the locker room will also be aggressive.

Friday is Day One of Free Agency 2010.  This weekend should be very interesting and possibly confusing.  Stay tuned.