NFL Championship Games

This Sunday the nation watches as two teams will advance to SUPERBOWL XLV.  In the AFC you have the steel-city bruisers versus the trash-talking boys from the Big Apple.  In the NFC you have the leagues oldest rivalry.  The opportunistic Bears versus the aggressive, high-scoring Pack.  Both games should be fantastic and fans of these four teams will be on the edge of their seats as both games should be close.

NFC

Chicago v. Green Bay

These two teams don’t like each other very much.  They respect each other, but don’t like each other.  The fans can’t stand one another.  The back and forth between fans through the media and online has reached new heights.  Who knows, there could be more action in the stands on Sunday than on the field.  To analyze this game really doesn’t go much further than Jay Cutler.  Bottomline, how he plays will dictate if Bears are prowling the streets of Dallas in two weeks.  As a Bear QB he is 1-3 versus the Pack with 9 interceptions.  That of course scares me big time but I won’t necessarily put that all on him because last years Bears were not very good.  Conversely, Jay Cutler is 22-0 as a QB when he concludes the game with a 100 QB rating or better.  That is a very telling statistic.

Green Bay will rush everyone at Jay all day long.  Jay will run, Jay will fall and Jay will not collect $200.  The best thing Jay can do under rough circumstances is not turn the ball over.  Mike Martz has to help Jay by running the ball and keeping the passes under 15 yards.  Quick looks in the slot and passes to the back out of the backfield will make any pressure Green Bay brings negligible.

On Green Bay’s side of the ball Aaron Rodgers will do well, he always does.  The Bear simply have to do what they did in Green Bay a few weeks ago which was stop the run and put pressure on Aaron without blitzing too much.  The Bears D is almost unbeatable if Peppers, Harris and Idonije are able to put pressure on the QB.  It allows Briggs and Urlacher to stay back and do what they do best which is filling the running lanes and taking away the intermediate passing attack.

There are two other intangibles worth noting.  If Hester and Manning get the ball on special teams the Bears should have great field position all day.  So, even if the Bears don’t score much, Punter Brad Maynard should keep Green Bay inside their own 20 most of the day.  If Green Bay has to play up hill all day they won’t win.  One other one worth mentioning is the matchup between Matthews and Webb.  LB Clay Matthews is Jack Lambert, Dick Butkus and Thor all rolled into one.  He makes a huge difference on that defense.  On the Bears side is very green rookie OT Webb.  He has shown steady improvement all year but he will be staring down the blitzes from Clay all day.  If he can contain him even a little that will help Chicago.  If he can’t than Chicago could be in trouble.

MY PICK – Chicago 17 Green Bay 13

AFC

New York v. Pittsburgh

This is going to be a great game.  Pittsburgh has been tough as nails since Big Ben’s return and the Jets have been like a boulder rolling downhill.  Both teams, on the surface, are very equal.  Both defenses are very tough, the QBs don’t make too many mistakes and the running games are very good.  Both teams are also well coached.

NY is facing a better running team than they did last week.  Rashard Mendenhall is vastly underrated.  He is very tough.  The one thing that the Steelers have going for them and this should come into play this weekend is the knack for the big play.  At almost guarantee at one point in this game when things are tight Big Ben is going to hook up for a big TD with Wallace, Sanders or Ward.  It will more than likely be a difference maker.

The Jet offense is good but has been inconsistent.  While Pittsburgh making big plays is almost a guarantee, I don’t feel the same way about the Jets.  I don’t think the offense can break open a game or come from behind late to win.  Their recipe for success is their defense holding the opposing team to under 20 points.  That is pretty much the bottom line.  I don’t want to knock Sanchez or the couple of weapons he has at wideout but that offense doesn’t scare me much.  I can see them moving the ball decently enough against Polamalu and the boys but I can’t see them making big plays and scoring too much.  LT could be a difference maker and open up the passing game but it isn’t likely against Pittsburgh.

Some intangibles worth mentioning might be the Jets pass rush.  They were able to disrupt any sort of passing attack from Tom Brady last week by keeping constant pressure on him.  That will be their plan against Ben as well.  The only difference is if they bring too many of their talented LBs on the rush it could open up for a big run or pass play.  Big Ben always played well under pressure.  The final intangible I can think of would be Pittsburgh’s depth and experience.  This is their fourth AFC championship in 7 years.  They have a great coach and an amazing system that works.  They can plug in and rotate guys all over the field and not lose too much.  They Jets are close but on the road against a team like Pittsburgh is going to be tough.

MY PICK – Pittsburgh 27 NY 16

NFL Championship Weekend

On the AFC side you have a classic matchup of two teams that don’t like each other very much.  Ravens v. Steelers.  Defense v. Defense.  This one is going to get muddy and bloody.  On the other hand you have an improbable #4 v. #6 seed.  The old time rivals of Eagles v. Cardinals.  Does Kurt Warner pull another rabbit out of his hat or does the hot D.McNabb keep it going?

BALTIMORE V. PITTSBURGH

The Pittsburgh Steelers have eeked out two wins against the Ravens this season.  It is now that crucial third game that most teams that won the first two don’t like.  However teams that have beaten another division foe twice in the regular season have met that team 18 times in the NFL postseason. The 2-0 teams have won that third meeting 11 times. 

The Baltimore Ravens are the OLD Cleveland Browns so some of the older players remember this rivalry.  Cleveland v. Pittsburgh is a great AFC rivalry.  The Rooney and Modell clans certainly remember.  However, the Ravens have their own identity and the Steelers have developed a great rivalry with Baltimore. 

I look for this game to be really tight.  I would also be surprised if either team broke 20 points this weekend.  The difference could be Joe Flacco who has won 2 playoff games, more than any rookie QB in NFL history.  Can he get that third on the road in Pittsburgh? 

My prediction is Pittsburgh wins a game on a late field goal.  Both QBs will struggle against good defenses.  Final score: Pittsburgh 16 Baltimore 13.

PHILADELPHIA V. ARIZONA

The Cardinals have been around since 1920.  The Eagles have been around since 1933.  They have a 75 year history of playing one another.  It is a rivalry that dates back almost as far as Green Bay v. Chicago or the NY Giants v. Washington Redskins.  In 1947 the Cardinals won their last championship against the Philadelphia Eagles.  In 1948 the Eagles win the championship against the Cardinals. 

The meeting hasn’t been as significant since the Cardinals left Chicago/St. Louis, but it is still a good one.  And now it is our NFC championship game.  No one is surprised (even with the #6 seeding) that the Eagles are in the NFC championship game.  They have been in this game 5 times since 2001.  Reid and company have been very good team this decade and lack only one thing, the Lombardi Trophy.

The Cardinals stand in their way and they are truly a mystery.  They finished 9-7, 6-0 versus their own weak division and 3-7 against the rest of the league.  No one expected them to do much.  No one gave them a chance at home against a hot, young Atlanta team but they won.  Kurt Warner looked like the old Kurt Warner.  He is having a blast throwing to Arizona’s big three of Fitzgerald, Boldin and Breaston.  The Cards are starting to run the ball too with Hightower and Edge.  The defense is also making statements by blitzing, hitting hard and getting turnovers.  Just ask Jake Delhomme who was obviously confused by their schemes.  He was rushed early and often and turned the ball over 5 times.

In the Eagles v. Cards match up early in the year Philadelphia destroyed Arizona by 28 points.  It wasn’t much of a game.  This time around could be a little different.  Arizona is at home.  Arizona is running much better than they did in November.  They are also playing good defense.  For Philadelphia, the Eagles have been lucky but they have also been good.  And, to win championships in this league you have to be both lucky and good.  McNabb is playing loose right now.  He beat the defending champs in adverse conditions on Sunday.  When McNabb is a happy camper and Westbrook is healthy, Philly is tough to beat.

My prediction is Arizona and Kurt Warner will out gun McNabb and company.  It should be a very entertaining game.  I look for both team’s defenses to dial it down a notch after tremendous efforts against Carolina and NY.  Final score: Arizona 28  Philadelphia 24.